You have to multiply this with the chance of failure for the second roll (1/3):
This is the chance that the second die will determine failure or succes. Then you take the remaining chance of succes for the first roll, which is: After all, if the first one fails the second one is irrelevant (whether both dice are rolled at the same time or sequentially doesn't matter for this).
Well, first you take the chance of failure on the first roll: which is 1 in 3. So how do you make that into an equasion? So, first you have a 2 in 6 or 33.3% chance to fail, then dependant on the success of that, you have another 2 in 6 (33.3%) chance to fail. I know that both are 33.3% chance of Turnover. how do you calculate dependencies? example: 2 x 3+ dodge rolls. Just so we can all see the stats printed in one place Can you please tell me the % chance of turn over for the following events?ġ) 3 Dice Block (I don't have Block)= 1/27 (3.7%)Ģ) 3 Dice Block (I have Block)= 1/216 (0.4%)ģ) 2 dice Block (I don't have Block)= 1/9 (11%)Ĥ) 2 dice Block (I have Block)= 1/36 (2.8%)ĥ) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 33%ħ) 2 dice against Block (You have Block, I don't)= 5/9 (55%)Ĩ ) 2 dice against Block (We both have block)= 9/36 (30.5%)ĩ) 2 dice against Block (I have Block, you dont)= 9/36 (30.5%)ġ0) 3 dice against Block (You have Block, I don't)= 19/27 (70.3%)ġ1) 3 dice against Block (We both have block)= 91/216(42.1%)ġ2) 3 dice against Block (I have Block, you dont)= 91/216 (42.1%)ġ3) 5+ followed by 4+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG2)= 5/6 (83%)ġ4) 4+ followed by 3+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG3)= 2/3 (67%)ġ5) 3+ followed by 2+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG4)= 4/9 (44%)ġ6) 5+ followed by 5+ (two dodges with AG1)= 8/9 (89%)ġ7) 4+ followed by 4+ (two dodges with AG2)= 3/4 (75%)ġ8 ) 3+ followed by 3+ (two dodges with AG3)= 5/9 (55%)ġ9) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4)= 11/36 (30.5%)īouf wrote:I'm no statistician. I recently read a great article about judging risks in Blood Bowl and taking all your easy rolls first.
#Blood bowl odd calculator 2 2 or 3 pro#
Without a Team Re-roll available your chance of turn over is.ģ) 3 Dice Block (I don't have Block) = 3.70%Ĥ) 2 dice Block (I don't have Block) = 11.11%ħ) 2 dice against Block (I have Block) = 30.60%Ĩ ) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4) = 30.60%ĩ) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 33.33%ġ1) 3 dice against Block (I have Block) = 42.10%ġ2) 3+ followed by 2+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG4) = 44.40%ġ4) 3+ followed by 3+ (two dodges with AG3) = 55.56%ġ5) 2 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 55.56%ġ6) 4+ followed by 3+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG3) = 66.67%ġ8 ) 3 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 70.37%ġ9) 4+ followed by 4+ (two dodges with AG2) = 75.00%Ģ0) 5+ followed by 4+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG2) = 83.33%Ģ2) 5+ followed by 5+ (two dodges with AG1) = 88.89%ĮDIT: Is Block better than Pro on Big Guys?īouf wrote:Here is a question for those smarter than me. How many times have you watched a rookie make a silly mistake? How many times have you snatched defeat from the jaws of victory? There are obviously a lot of other factors to consider, but this may help offer some insight priortising your actions in BB!ĮDIT: With Jural's & Grogmir's help I've ordered these by risk.Īssuming that you have a Team Re-Roll available, your chance of turn over is.ģ) 3 Dice Block (I don't have Block) = 0.14%Ĥ) 2 dice Block (I don't have Block) = 1.23%ħ) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4) = 7.40%Ĩ ) 2 dice against Block (I have Block) = 9.36%ĩ) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 11.1%ġ1) 3+ followed by 2+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG4) = 16.67%ġ2) 3 dice against Block (I have Block) = 17.72%ġ4) 3+ followed by 3+ (two dodges with AG3) = 25.93%ġ5) 2 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 30.86%ġ6) 4+ followed by 3+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG3) = 38.89%ġ8 ) 3 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 49.52%ġ9) 4+ followed by 4+ (two dodges with AG2) = 50.00%Ģ0) 5+ followed by 4+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG2) = 63.89%Ģ2) 5+ followed by 5+ (two dodges with AG1) = 66.67% after polling the TBB forums, I've managed to complie a list of posible actiona and the chance it could end your turn. Here is a post for those smarter than me.
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